Lions @ Bears
Lions
BearsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bears beat the Lions 28-13 at home. The market closed with Lions at -162 on the moneyline and the total at 44.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 14 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Lions betting trends · Bears betting trends · all NFL games
Lions vs Bears betting splits
Where was the money on Lions vs Bears?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lions | 46% | 30% | -3 (-115) |
| Bears | 54% | 70% | +3 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 44% | 21% | O 44.5 (-110) |
| Under | 56% | 79% | U 44.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Lions | 70% | 49% | -162 |
| Bears | 30% | 51% | +136 |
54% of spread tickets and 70% of spread money were on the Bears, so the average Bears bet was larger than the average Lions bet.
56% of total tickets and 79% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
The Lions held 70% of moneyline tickets but only 49% of the money; 51% of moneyline money was on the Bears with 30% of tickets, so the average Bears bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Lions vs Bears?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bears) | +3 | +3 | 0 |
| Total | 43 | 44.5 | +1.5 |
The Lions were -3 24 hours before kickoff and closed -3: the spread has not moved.
The total was 43 24 hours before kickoff and closed 44.5, a 1.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Lions vs Bears line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Bears +3) even with 70% of the spread money on the Bears. The total moved 1.5 points toward the over (43 to 44.5) even though 79% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 21% of the money and 44% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.