Jaguars @ Browns
Jaguars
BrownsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Browns beat the Jaguars 31-27 at home. The market closed with Jaguars at +120 on the moneyline and the total at 37.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 14 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Jaguars betting trends · Browns betting trends · all NFL games
Jaguars vs Browns betting splits
Where was the money on Jaguars vs Browns?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jaguars | 31% | 16% | +2.5 (-109) |
| Browns | 69% | 84% | -2.5 (-111) | |
| Total | Over | 32% | 11% | O 37.5 (-110) |
| Under | 68% | 89% | U 37.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Jaguars | 30% | 11% | +120 |
| Browns | 70% | 89% | -142 |
69% of spread tickets and 84% of spread money were on the Browns, so the average Browns bet was larger than the average Jaguars bet.
68% of total tickets and 89% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
70% of moneyline tickets and 89% of moneyline money were on the Browns, so the average Browns bet was larger than the average Jaguars bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Jaguars vs Browns?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Browns) | -3 | -2.5 | +0.5 |
| Total | 33.5 | 37.5 | +4 |
The Browns were -3 24 hours before kickoff and closed -2.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Jaguars.
The total was 33.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 37.5, a 4-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Jaguars vs Browns line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Jaguars (Browns -3 to Browns -2.5) even though 84% of the spread money sits on the Browns; the Jaguars hold 16% of the money and 31% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 4 points toward the over (33.5 to 37.5) even though 89% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 11% of the money and 32% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.