Broncos @ Chargers
Broncos
ChargersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Broncos beat the Chargers 24-7 on the road. The market closed with Broncos at +140 on the moneyline and the total at 46. This was an NFL 2023 week 14 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Broncos betting trends · Chargers betting trends · all NFL games
Broncos vs Chargers betting splits
Where was the money on Broncos vs Chargers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Broncos | 69% | 58% | +3 (-110) |
| Chargers | 31% | 42% | -3 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 60% | 25% | O 46 (-111) |
| Under | 40% | 75% | U 46 (-109) | |
| Moneyline | Broncos | 63% | 33% | +140 |
| Chargers | 37% | 67% | -170 |
69% of spread tickets and 58% of spread money were on the Broncos, so the Broncos drew more tickets than money and the average Chargers bet was larger.
The over held 60% of total tickets but only 25% of the money; 75% of total money was on the under with 40% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
The Broncos held 63% of moneyline tickets but only 33% of the money; 67% of moneyline money was on the Chargers with 37% of tickets, so the average Chargers bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Broncos vs Chargers?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Chargers) | -2.5 | -3 | -0.5 |
| Total | 44 | 46 | +2 |
The Chargers were -2.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -3, a 0.5-point move toward the Chargers.
The total was 44 24 hours before kickoff and closed 46, a 2-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Broncos vs Chargers line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Chargers (Chargers -2.5 to Chargers -3) even though 58% of the spread money sits on the Broncos; the Chargers hold 42% of the money and 31% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 2 points toward the over (44 to 46) even though 75% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 25% of the money and 60% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.