Bills @ Chiefs
Bills
ChiefsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Chiefs 20-17 on the road. The market closed with Bills at +105 on the moneyline and the total at 49. This was an NFL 2023 week 14 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Bills betting trends · Chiefs betting trends · all NFL games
Bills vs Chiefs betting splits
Where was the money on Bills vs Chiefs?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bills | 64% | 50% | +1.5 (-110) |
| Chiefs | 36% | 50% | -1.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 72% | 50% | O 49 (-110) |
| Under | 28% | 50% | U 49 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Bills | 49% | 43% | +105 |
| Chiefs | 51% | 57% | -125 |
Spread money was split evenly at 50% a side (tickets 64% Bills, 36% Chiefs).
Total money was split evenly at 50% a side (tickets 72% Over, 28% Under).
51% of moneyline tickets and 57% of moneyline money were on the Chiefs, so the average Chiefs bet was larger than the average Bills bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Bills vs Chiefs?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Chiefs) | -1 | -1.5 | -0.5 |
| Total | 48.5 | 49 | +0.5 |
The Chiefs were -1 24 hours before kickoff and closed -1.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Chiefs.
The total was 48.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 49, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Bills vs Chiefs line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Chiefs (Chiefs -1 to Chiefs -1.5); spread money is split evenly, so the move did not follow either side's money. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (48.5 to 49); total money is split evenly, so the move did not follow either side's money. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.