Bears @ Browns
Bears
BrownsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Browns beat the Bears 20-17 at home. The market closed with Bears at +124 on the moneyline and the total at 38. This was an NFL 2023 week 15 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Bears betting trends · Browns betting trends · all NFL games
Bears vs Browns betting splits
Where was the money on Bears vs Browns?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bears | 66% | 85% | +2.5 (-105) |
| Browns | 34% | 15% | -2.5 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 29% | 8% | O 38 (-110) |
| Under | 71% | 92% | U 38 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Bears | 43% | 49% | +124 |
| Browns | 57% | 51% | -148 |
66% of spread tickets and 85% of spread money were on the Bears, so the average Bears bet was larger than the average Browns bet.
71% of total tickets and 92% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
57% of moneyline tickets and 51% of moneyline money were on the Browns, so the Browns drew more tickets than money and the average Bears bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Bears vs Browns?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Browns) | -3 | -2.5 | +0.5 |
| Total | 37.5 | 38 | +0.5 |
The Browns were -3 24 hours before kickoff and closed -2.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Bears.
The total was 37.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 38, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Bears vs Browns line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Bears (Browns -3 to Browns -2.5), the side holding 85% of the spread money and 66% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (37.5 to 38) even though 92% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 8% of the money and 29% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.