Buccaneers @ Packers
Buccaneers
PackersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Buccaneers beat the Packers 34-20 on the road. The market closed with Buccaneers at +171 on the moneyline and the total at 41.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 15 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Buccaneers betting trends · Packers betting trends · all NFL games
Buccaneers vs Packers betting splits
Where was the money on Buccaneers vs Packers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buccaneers | 46% | 56% | +4 (-110) |
| Packers | 54% | 44% | -4 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 64% | 22% | O 41.5 (-110) |
| Under | 36% | 78% | U 41.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Buccaneers | 22% | 38% | +171 |
| Packers | 78% | 62% | -206 |
The Packers held 54% of spread tickets but only 44% of the money; 56% of spread money was on the Buccaneers with 46% of tickets, so the average Buccaneers bet was larger.
The over held 64% of total tickets but only 22% of the money; 78% of total money was on the under with 36% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
78% of moneyline tickets and 62% of moneyline money were on the Packers, so the Packers drew more tickets than money and the average Buccaneers bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Buccaneers vs Packers?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Packers) | -3.5 | -4 | -0.5 |
| Total | 42.5 | 41.5 | -1 |
The Packers were -3.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -4, a 0.5-point move toward the Packers.
The total was 42.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 41.5, a 1-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Buccaneers vs Packers line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Packers (Packers -3.5 to Packers -4) even though 56% of the spread money sits on the Buccaneers; the Packers hold 44% of the money and 54% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 1 point toward the under (42.5 to 41.5), the side holding 78% of the total money and 36% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.