Commanders @ Rams
Commanders
RamsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Rams beat the Commanders 28-20 at home. The market closed with Commanders at +240 on the moneyline and the total at 48.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 15 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Commanders betting trends · Rams betting trends · all NFL games
Commanders vs Rams betting splits
Where was the money on Commanders vs Rams?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Commanders | 20% | 26% | +6.5 (-108) |
| Rams | 80% | 74% | -6.5 (-112) | |
| Total | Over | 89% | 88% | O 48.5 (-110) |
| Under | 11% | 12% | U 48.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Commanders | 11% | 27% | +240 |
| Rams | 89% | 73% | -295 |
80% of spread tickets and 74% of spread money were on the Rams, so the Rams drew more tickets than money and the average Commanders bet was larger.
89% of total tickets and 88% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
89% of moneyline tickets and 73% of moneyline money were on the Rams, so the Rams drew more tickets than money and the average Commanders bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Commanders vs Rams?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Rams) | -6.5 | -6.5 | 0 |
| Total | 50.5 | 48.5 | -2 |
The Rams were -6.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -6.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 50.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 48.5, a 2-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Commanders vs Rams line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Rams -6.5) even with 74% of the spread money on the Rams. The total moved 2 points toward the under (50.5 to 48.5) even though 88% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 12% of the money and 11% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.