Cowboys @ Bills
Cowboys
BillsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Cowboys 31-10 at home. The market closed with Cowboys at +119 on the moneyline and the total at 49.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 15 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Cowboys betting trends · Bills betting trends · all NFL games
Cowboys vs Bills betting splits
Where was the money on Cowboys vs Bills?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cowboys | 38% | 21% | +2.5 (-108) |
| Bills | 62% | 79% | -2.5 (-112) | |
| Total | Over | 70% | 47% | O 49.5 (-105) |
| Under | 30% | 53% | U 49.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Cowboys | 37% | 16% | +119 |
| Bills | 63% | 84% | -140 |
62% of spread tickets and 79% of spread money were on the Bills, so the average Bills bet was larger than the average Cowboys bet.
The over held 70% of total tickets but only 47% of the money; 53% of total money was on the under with 30% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
63% of moneyline tickets and 84% of moneyline money were on the Bills, so the average Bills bet was larger than the average Cowboys bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Cowboys vs Bills?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bills) | -2 | -2.5 | -0.5 |
| Total | 49.5 | 49.5 | 0 |
The Bills were -2 24 hours before kickoff and closed -2.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Bills.
The total was 49.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 49.5: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Cowboys vs Bills line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Bills (Bills -2 to Bills -2.5), the side holding 79% of the spread money and 62% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (49.5) even with 53% of the total money on the under. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.