Chiefs @ Patriots
Chiefs
PatriotsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Chiefs beat the Patriots 27-17 on the road. The market closed with Chiefs at -505 on the moneyline and the total at 39.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 15 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Chiefs betting trends · Patriots betting trends · all NFL games
Chiefs vs Patriots betting splits
Where was the money on Chiefs vs Patriots?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chiefs | 72% | 38% | -10 (-112) |
| Patriots | 28% | 62% | +10 (-108) | |
| Total | Over | 52% | 23% | O 39.5 (-110) |
| Under | 48% | 77% | U 39.5 (-108) | |
| Moneyline | Chiefs | 94% | 95% | -505 |
| Patriots | 6% | 5% | +385 |
The Chiefs held 72% of spread tickets but only 38% of the money; 62% of spread money was on the Patriots with 28% of tickets, so the average Patriots bet was larger.
The over held 52% of total tickets but only 23% of the money; 77% of total money was on the under with 48% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
94% of moneyline tickets and 95% of moneyline money were on the Chiefs, so the average Chiefs bet was larger than the average Patriots bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Chiefs vs Patriots?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Patriots) | +8.5 | +10 | +1.5 |
| Total | 37 | 39.5 | +2.5 |
The Chiefs were -8.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -10, a 1.5-point move toward the Chiefs.
The total was 37 24 hours before kickoff and closed 39.5, a 2.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Chiefs vs Patriots line move?
The spread moved 1.5 points toward the Chiefs (Patriots +8.5 to Patriots +10) even though 62% of the spread money sits on the Patriots; the Chiefs hold 38% of the money and 72% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 2.5 points toward the over (37 to 39.5) even though 77% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 23% of the money and 52% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.