Commanders @ Jets
Commanders
JetsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Jets beat the Commanders 30-28 at home. The market closed with Commanders at +148 on the moneyline and the total at 36.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 16 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Commanders betting trends · Jets betting trends · all NFL games
Commanders vs Jets betting splits
Where was the money on Commanders vs Jets?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Commanders | 51% | 57% | +3 (-104) |
| Jets | 49% | 43% | -3 (-118) | |
| Total | Over | 21% | 11% | O 36.5 (-110) |
| Under | 79% | 89% | U 36.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Commanders | 30% | 55% | +148 |
| Jets | 70% | 45% | -176 |
51% of spread tickets and 57% of spread money were on the Commanders, so the average Commanders bet was larger than the average Jets bet.
79% of total tickets and 89% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
The Jets held 70% of moneyline tickets but only 45% of the money; 55% of moneyline money was on the Commanders with 30% of tickets, so the average Commanders bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Commanders vs Jets?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Jets) | -3 | -3 | 0 |
| Total | 37 | 36.5 | -0.5 |
The Jets were -3 24 hours before kickoff and closed -3: the spread has not moved.
The total was 37 24 hours before kickoff and closed 36.5, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Commanders vs Jets line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Jets -3) even with 57% of the spread money on the Commanders. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (37 to 36.5), the side holding 89% of the total money and 79% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.