Colts @ Falcons
Colts
FalconsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Falcons beat the Colts 29-10 at home. The market closed with Colts at +130 on the moneyline and the total at 44.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 16 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Colts betting trends · Falcons betting trends · all NFL games
Colts vs Falcons betting splits
Where was the money on Colts vs Falcons?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colts | 53% | 32% | +2.5 (-102) |
| Falcons | 47% | 68% | -2.5 (-120) | |
| Total | Over | 68% | 88% | O 44.5 (-110) |
| Under | 32% | 12% | U 44.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Colts | 43% | 17% | +130 |
| Falcons | 57% | 83% | -155 |
The Colts held 53% of spread tickets but only 32% of the money; 68% of spread money was on the Falcons with 47% of tickets, so the average Falcons bet was larger.
68% of total tickets and 88% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
57% of moneyline tickets and 83% of moneyline money were on the Falcons, so the average Falcons bet was larger than the average Colts bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Colts vs Falcons?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Falcons) | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 |
| Total | 45.5 | 44.5 | -1 |
The Falcons were -2.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -2.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 45.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 44.5, a 1-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Colts vs Falcons line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Falcons -2.5) even with 68% of the spread money on the Falcons. The total moved 1 point toward the under (45.5 to 44.5) even though 88% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 12% of the money and 32% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.