Jaguars @ Buccaneers
Jaguars
BuccaneersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Buccaneers beat the Jaguars 30-12 at home. The market closed with Jaguars at -136 on the moneyline and the total at 43.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 16 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Jaguars betting trends · Buccaneers betting trends · all NFL games
Jaguars vs Buccaneers betting splits
Where was the money on Jaguars vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jaguars | 50% | 51% | -2.5 (-115) |
| Buccaneers | 50% | 49% | +2.5 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 79% | 68% | O 43.5 (-105) |
| Under | 21% | 32% | U 43.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Jaguars | 46% | 70% | -136 |
| Buccaneers | 54% | 30% | +115 |
50% of spread tickets and 51% of spread money were on the Jaguars, so the average Jaguars bet was larger than the average Buccaneers bet.
79% of total tickets and 68% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
The Buccaneers held 54% of moneyline tickets but only 30% of the money; 70% of moneyline money was on the Jaguars with 46% of tickets, so the average Jaguars bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Jaguars vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Buccaneers) | +1 | +2.5 | +1.5 |
| Total | 43 | 43.5 | +0.5 |
The Jaguars were -1 24 hours before kickoff and closed -2.5, a 1.5-point move toward the Jaguars.
The total was 43 24 hours before kickoff and closed 43.5, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Jaguars vs Buccaneers line move?
The spread moved 1.5 points toward the Jaguars (Buccaneers +1 to Buccaneers +2.5), the side holding 51% of the spread money and 50% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (43 to 43.5), the side holding 68% of the total money and 79% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.