Cowboys @ Dolphins
Cowboys
DolphinsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Dolphins beat the Cowboys 22-20 at home. The market closed with Cowboys at +103 on the moneyline and the total at 48.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 16 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Cowboys betting trends · Dolphins betting trends · all NFL games
Cowboys vs Dolphins betting splits
Where was the money on Cowboys vs Dolphins?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cowboys | 52% | 68% | +1.5 (-110) |
| Dolphins | 48% | 32% | -1.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 68% | 34% | O 48.5 (-118) |
| Under | 32% | 66% | U 48.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Cowboys | 64% | 52% | +103 |
| Dolphins | 36% | 48% | -122 |
52% of spread tickets and 68% of spread money were on the Cowboys, so the average Cowboys bet was larger than the average Dolphins bet.
The over held 68% of total tickets but only 34% of the money; 66% of total money was on the under with 32% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
64% of moneyline tickets and 52% of moneyline money were on the Cowboys, so the Cowboys drew more tickets than money and the average Dolphins bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Cowboys vs Dolphins?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Dolphins) | -1.5 | -1.5 | 0 |
| Total | 49.5 | 48.5 | -1 |
The Dolphins were -1.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -1.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 49.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 48.5, a 1-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Cowboys vs Dolphins line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Dolphins -1.5) even with 68% of the spread money on the Cowboys. The total moved 1 point toward the under (49.5 to 48.5), the side holding 66% of the total money and 32% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.