Cardinals @ Bears
Cardinals
BearsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bears beat the Cardinals 27-16 at home. The market closed with Cardinals at +180 on the moneyline and the total at 42.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 16 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Cardinals betting trends · Bears betting trends · all NFL games
Cardinals vs Bears betting splits
Where was the money on Cardinals vs Bears?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cardinals | 62% | 69% | +4.5 (-110) |
| Bears | 38% | 31% | -4.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 63% | 38% | O 42.5 (-105) |
| Under | 37% | 62% | U 42.5 (-115) | |
| Moneyline | Cardinals | 35% | 58% | +180 |
| Bears | 65% | 42% | -218 |
62% of spread tickets and 69% of spread money were on the Cardinals, so the average Cardinals bet was larger than the average Bears bet.
The over held 63% of total tickets but only 38% of the money; 62% of total money was on the under with 37% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
The Bears held 65% of moneyline tickets but only 42% of the money; 58% of moneyline money was on the Cardinals with 35% of tickets, so the average Cardinals bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Cardinals vs Bears?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bears) | -4 | -4.5 | -0.5 |
| Total | 43 | 42.5 | -0.5 |
The Bears were -4 24 hours before kickoff and closed -4.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Bears.
The total was 43 24 hours before kickoff and closed 42.5, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Cardinals vs Bears line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Bears (Bears -4 to Bears -4.5) even though 69% of the spread money sits on the Cardinals; the Bears hold 31% of the money and 38% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (43 to 42.5), the side holding 62% of the total money and 37% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.