Patriots @ Broncos
Patriots
BroncosArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Patriots beat the Broncos 26-23 on the road. The market closed with Patriots at +275 on the moneyline and the total at 37.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 16 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Patriots betting trends · Broncos betting trends · all NFL games
Patriots vs Broncos betting splits
Where was the money on Patriots vs Broncos?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Patriots | 45% | 73% | +7 (-110) |
| Broncos | 55% | 27% | -7 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 47% | 27% | O 37.5 (-110) |
| Under | 53% | 73% | U 37.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Patriots | 13% | 80% | +275 |
| Broncos | 87% | 20% | -350 |
The Broncos held 55% of spread tickets but only 27% of the money; 73% of spread money was on the Patriots with 45% of tickets, so the average Patriots bet was larger.
53% of total tickets and 73% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
The Broncos held 87% of moneyline tickets but only 20% of the money; 80% of moneyline money was on the Patriots with 13% of tickets, so the average Patriots bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Patriots vs Broncos?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Broncos) | -7.5 | -7 | +0.5 |
| Total | 35.5 | 37.5 | +2 |
The Broncos were -7.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -7, a 0.5-point move toward the Patriots.
The total was 35.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 37.5, a 2-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Patriots vs Broncos line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Patriots (Broncos -7.5 to Broncos -7), the side holding 73% of the spread money and 45% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 2 points toward the over (35.5 to 37.5) even though 73% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 27% of the money and 47% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.