Raiders @ Chiefs
Raiders
ChiefsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Raiders beat the Chiefs 20-14 on the road. The market closed with Raiders at +417 on the moneyline and the total at 40.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 16 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Raiders betting trends · Chiefs betting trends · all NFL games
Raiders vs Chiefs betting splits
Where was the money on Raiders vs Chiefs?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Raiders | 44% | 57% | +11 (-102) |
| Chiefs | 56% | 43% | -11 (-118) | |
| Total | Over | 59% | 36% | O 40.5 (-105) |
| Under | 41% | 64% | U 40.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Raiders | 7% | 9% | +417 |
| Chiefs | 93% | 91% | -562 |
The Chiefs held 56% of spread tickets but only 43% of the money; 57% of spread money was on the Raiders with 44% of tickets, so the average Raiders bet was larger.
The over held 59% of total tickets but only 36% of the money; 64% of total money was on the under with 41% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
93% of moneyline tickets and 91% of moneyline money were on the Chiefs, so the Chiefs drew more tickets than money and the average Raiders bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Raiders vs Chiefs?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Chiefs) | -10.5 | -11 | -0.5 |
| Total | 40.5 | 40.5 | 0 |
The Chiefs were -10.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -11, a 0.5-point move toward the Chiefs.
The total was 40.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 40.5: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Raiders vs Chiefs line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Chiefs (Chiefs -10.5 to Chiefs -11) even though 57% of the spread money sits on the Raiders; the Chiefs hold 43% of the money and 56% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (40.5) even with 64% of the total money on the under. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.