Patriots @ Bills
Patriots
BillsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Patriots 27-21 at home. The market closed with Patriots at +750 on the moneyline and the total at 40. This was an NFL 2023 week 17 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Patriots betting trends · Bills betting trends · all NFL games
Patriots vs Bills betting splits
Where was the money on Patriots vs Bills?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Patriots | 48% | 26% | +14.5 (-105) |
| Bills | 52% | 74% | -14.5 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 55% | 39% | O 40 (-112) |
| Under | 45% | 61% | U 40 (-108) | |
| Moneyline | Patriots | 27% | 84% | +750 |
| Bills | 73% | 16% | -1200 |
52% of spread tickets and 74% of spread money were on the Bills, so the average Bills bet was larger than the average Patriots bet.
The over held 55% of total tickets but only 39% of the money; 61% of total money was on the under with 45% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
The Bills held 73% of moneyline tickets but only 16% of the money; 84% of moneyline money was on the Patriots with 27% of tickets, so the average Patriots bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Patriots vs Bills?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bills) | -14 | -14.5 | -0.5 |
| Total | 40 | 40 | 0 |
The Bills were -14 24 hours before kickoff and closed -14.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Bills.
The total was 40 24 hours before kickoff and closed 40: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Patriots vs Bills line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Bills (Bills -14 to Bills -14.5), the side holding 74% of the spread money and 52% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (40) even with 61% of the total money on the under. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.