49ers @ Commanders
49ers
CommandersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: 49ers beat the Commanders 27-10 on the road. The market closed with 49ers at -1124 on the moneyline and the total at 48.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 17 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: 49ers betting trends · Commanders betting trends · all NFL games
49ers vs Commanders betting splits
Where was the money on 49ers vs Commanders?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | 49ers | 81% | 77% | -14 (-115) |
| Commanders | 19% | 23% | +14 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 52% | 46% | O 48.5 (-110) |
| Under | 48% | 54% | U 48.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | 49ers | 93% | 88% | -1124 |
| Commanders | 7% | 12% | +715 |
81% of spread tickets and 77% of spread money were on the 49ers, so the 49ers drew more tickets than money and the average Commanders bet was larger.
The over held 52% of total tickets but only 46% of the money; 54% of total money was on the under with 48% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
93% of moneyline tickets and 88% of moneyline money were on the 49ers, so the 49ers drew more tickets than money and the average Commanders bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for 49ers vs Commanders?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Commanders) | +13.5 | +14 | +0.5 |
| Total | 49.5 | 48.5 | -1 |
The 49ers were -13.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -14, a 0.5-point move toward the 49ers.
The total was 49.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 48.5, a 1-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the 49ers vs Commanders line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the 49ers (Commanders +13.5 to Commanders +14), the side holding 77% of the spread money and 81% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 1 point toward the under (49.5 to 48.5), the side holding 54% of the total money and 48% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.