Saints @ Buccaneers
Saints
BuccaneersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Saints beat the Buccaneers 23-13 on the road. The market closed with Saints at +124 on the moneyline and the total at 42.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 17 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Saints betting trends · Buccaneers betting trends · all NFL games
Saints vs Buccaneers betting splits
Where was the money on Saints vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Saints | 48% | 64% | +2.5 (-104) |
| Buccaneers | 52% | 36% | -2.5 (-118) | |
| Total | Over | 41% | 30% | O 42.5 (-108) |
| Under | 59% | 70% | U 42.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Saints | 20% | 66% | +124 |
| Buccaneers | 80% | 34% | -148 |
The Buccaneers held 52% of spread tickets but only 36% of the money; 64% of spread money was on the Saints with 48% of tickets, so the average Saints bet was larger.
59% of total tickets and 70% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
The Buccaneers held 80% of moneyline tickets but only 34% of the money; 66% of moneyline money was on the Saints with 20% of tickets, so the average Saints bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Saints vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Buccaneers) | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 |
| Total | 42.5 | 42.5 | 0 |
The Buccaneers were -2.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -2.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 42.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 42.5: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Saints vs Buccaneers line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Buccaneers -2.5) even with 64% of the spread money on the Saints. The total did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (42.5) even with 70% of the total money on the under. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.