Falcons @ Bears
Falcons
BearsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bears beat the Falcons 37-17 at home. The market closed with Falcons at +125 on the moneyline and the total at 39. This was an NFL 2023 week 17 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Falcons betting trends · Bears betting trends · all NFL games
Falcons vs Bears betting splits
Where was the money on Falcons vs Bears?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Falcons | 33% | 49% | +2.5 (+100) |
| Bears | 67% | 51% | -2.5 (-120) | |
| Total | Over | 47% | 37% | O 39 (-112) |
| Under | 53% | 63% | U 39 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Falcons | 57% | 31% | +125 |
| Bears | 43% | 69% | -148 |
67% of spread tickets and 51% of spread money were on the Bears, so the Bears drew more tickets than money and the average Falcons bet was larger.
53% of total tickets and 63% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
The Falcons held 57% of moneyline tickets but only 31% of the money; 69% of moneyline money was on the Bears with 43% of tickets, so the average Bears bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Falcons vs Bears?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bears) | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 |
| Total | 38 | 39 | +1 |
The Bears were -2.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -2.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 38 24 hours before kickoff and closed 39, a 1-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Falcons vs Bears line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Bears -2.5) even with 51% of the spread money on the Bears. The total moved 1 point toward the over (38 to 39) even though 63% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 37% of the money and 47% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.