Cowboys @ Commanders
Cowboys
CommandersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Cowboys beat the Commanders 38-10 on the road. The market closed with Cowboys at -924 on the moneyline and the total at 47.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 18 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Cowboys betting trends · Commanders betting trends · all NFL games
Cowboys vs Commanders betting splits
Where was the money on Cowboys vs Commanders?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cowboys | 62% | 76% | -13 (-115) |
| Commanders | 38% | 24% | +13 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 36% | 14% | O 47.5 (-112) |
| Under | 64% | 86% | U 47.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Cowboys | 87% | 86% | -924 |
| Commanders | 13% | 14% | +619 |
62% of spread tickets and 76% of spread money were on the Cowboys, so the average Cowboys bet was larger than the average Commanders bet.
64% of total tickets and 86% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
87% of moneyline tickets and 86% of moneyline money were on the Cowboys, so the Cowboys drew more tickets than money and the average Commanders bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Cowboys vs Commanders?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Commanders) | +13 | +13 | 0 |
| Total | 46.5 | 47.5 | +1 |
The Cowboys were -13 24 hours before kickoff and closed -13: the spread has not moved.
The total was 46.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 47.5, a 1-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Cowboys vs Commanders line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Commanders +13) even with 76% of the spread money on the Cowboys. The total moved 1 point toward the over (46.5 to 47.5) even though 86% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 14% of the money and 36% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.