Bills @ Dolphins
Bills
DolphinsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Dolphins 21-14 on the road. The market closed with Bills at -150 on the moneyline and the total at 48. This was an NFL 2023 week 18 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Bills betting trends · Dolphins betting trends · all NFL games
Bills vs Dolphins betting splits
Where was the money on Bills vs Dolphins?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bills | 71% | 86% | -2.5 (-118) |
| Dolphins | 29% | 14% | +2.5 (+105) | |
| Total | Over | 43% | 9% | O 48 (-118) |
| Under | 57% | 91% | U 48 (-102) | |
| Moneyline | Bills | 71% | 73% | -150 |
| Dolphins | 29% | 27% | +125 |
71% of spread tickets and 86% of spread money were on the Bills, so the average Bills bet was larger than the average Dolphins bet.
57% of total tickets and 91% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
71% of moneyline tickets and 73% of moneyline money were on the Bills, so the average Bills bet was larger than the average Dolphins bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Bills vs Dolphins?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Dolphins) | +2.5 | +2.5 | 0 |
| Total | 48.5 | 48 | -0.5 |
The Bills were -2.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -2.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 48.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 48, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Bills vs Dolphins line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Dolphins +2.5) even with 86% of the spread money on the Bills. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (48.5 to 48), the side holding 91% of the total money and 57% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.