Chiefs @ Chargers
Chiefs
ChargersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Chiefs beat the Chargers 13-12 on the road. The market closed with Chiefs at +143 on the moneyline and the total at 35.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 18 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Chiefs betting trends · Chargers betting trends · all NFL games
Chiefs vs Chargers betting splits
Where was the money on Chiefs vs Chargers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chiefs | 40% | 27% | +3.5 (-110) |
| Chargers | 60% | 73% | -3.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 38% | 20% | O 35.5 (-106) |
| Under | 62% | 80% | U 35.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Chiefs | 44% | 45% | +143 |
| Chargers | 56% | 55% | -171 |
60% of spread tickets and 73% of spread money were on the Chargers, so the average Chargers bet was larger than the average Chiefs bet.
62% of total tickets and 80% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
56% of moneyline tickets and 55% of moneyline money were on the Chargers, so the Chargers drew more tickets than money and the average Chiefs bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Chiefs vs Chargers?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Chargers) | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0 |
| Total | 35 | 35.5 | +0.5 |
The Chargers were -3.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -3.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 35 24 hours before kickoff and closed 35.5, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Chiefs vs Chargers line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Chargers -3.5) even with 73% of the spread money on the Chargers. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (35 to 35.5) even though 80% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 20% of the money and 38% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.