Broncos @ Raiders
Broncos
RaidersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Raiders beat the Broncos 27-14 at home. The market closed with Broncos at +141 on the moneyline and the total at 37.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 18 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Broncos betting trends · Raiders betting trends · all NFL games
Broncos vs Raiders betting splits
Where was the money on Broncos vs Raiders?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Broncos | 38% | 63% | +3 (-110) |
| Raiders | 62% | 37% | -3 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 23% | 11% | O 37.5 (-110) |
| Under | 77% | 89% | U 37.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Broncos | 32% | 39% | +141 |
| Raiders | 68% | 61% | -169 |
The Raiders held 62% of spread tickets but only 37% of the money; 63% of spread money was on the Broncos with 38% of tickets, so the average Broncos bet was larger.
77% of total tickets and 89% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
68% of moneyline tickets and 61% of moneyline money were on the Raiders, so the Raiders drew more tickets than money and the average Broncos bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Broncos vs Raiders?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Raiders) | -3 | -3 | 0 |
| Total | 37 | 37.5 | +0.5 |
The Raiders were -3 24 hours before kickoff and closed -3: the spread has not moved.
The total was 37 24 hours before kickoff and closed 37.5, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Broncos vs Raiders line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Raiders -3) even with 63% of the spread money on the Broncos. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (37 to 37.5) even though 89% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 11% of the money and 23% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.