Buccaneers @ Panthers
Buccaneers
PanthersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Buccaneers beat the Panthers 9-0 on the road. The market closed with Buccaneers at -232 on the moneyline and the total at 36.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 18 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Buccaneers betting trends · Panthers betting trends · all NFL games
Buccaneers vs Panthers betting splits
Where was the money on Buccaneers vs Panthers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buccaneers | 59% | 24% | -4.5 (-110) |
| Panthers | 41% | 76% | +4.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 62% | 24% | O 36.5 (-110) |
| Under | 38% | 76% | U 36.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Buccaneers | 87% | 49% | -232 |
| Panthers | 13% | 51% | +192 |
The Buccaneers held 59% of spread tickets but only 24% of the money; 76% of spread money was on the Panthers with 41% of tickets, so the average Panthers bet was larger.
The over held 62% of total tickets but only 24% of the money; 76% of total money was on the under with 38% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
The Buccaneers held 87% of moneyline tickets but only 49% of the money; 51% of moneyline money was on the Panthers with 13% of tickets, so the average Panthers bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Buccaneers vs Panthers?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Panthers) | +4 | +4.5 | +0.5 |
| Total | 36.5 | 36.5 | 0 |
The Buccaneers were -4 24 hours before kickoff and closed -4.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Buccaneers.
The total was 36.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 36.5: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Buccaneers vs Panthers line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Buccaneers (Panthers +4 to Panthers +4.5) even though 76% of the spread money sits on the Panthers; the Buccaneers hold 24% of the money and 59% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (36.5) even with 76% of the total money on the under. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.