Bears @ Packers
Bears
PackersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Packers beat the Bears 17-9 at home. The market closed with Bears at +128 on the moneyline and the total at 46. This was an NFL 2023 week 18 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Bears betting trends · Packers betting trends · all NFL games
Bears vs Packers betting splits
Where was the money on Bears vs Packers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bears | 62% | 83% | +3 (-115) |
| Packers | 38% | 17% | -3 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 78% | 75% | O 46 (-110) |
| Under | 22% | 25% | U 46 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Bears | 48% | 57% | +128 |
| Packers | 52% | 43% | -152 |
62% of spread tickets and 83% of spread money were on the Bears, so the average Bears bet was larger than the average Packers bet.
78% of total tickets and 75% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
The Packers held 52% of moneyline tickets but only 43% of the money; 57% of moneyline money was on the Bears with 48% of tickets, so the average Bears bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Bears vs Packers?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Packers) | -3 | -3 | 0 |
| Total | 45 | 46 | +1 |
The Packers were -3 24 hours before kickoff and closed -3: the spread has not moved.
The total was 45 24 hours before kickoff and closed 46, a 1-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Bears vs Packers line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Packers -3) even with 83% of the spread money on the Bears. The total moved 1 point toward the over (45 to 46), the side holding 75% of the total money and 78% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.