Jaguars @ Titans
Jaguars
TitansArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Titans beat the Jaguars 28-20 at home. The market closed with Jaguars at -185 on the moneyline and the total at 41.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 18 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Jaguars betting trends · Titans betting trends · all NFL games
Jaguars vs Titans betting splits
Where was the money on Jaguars vs Titans?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jaguars | 27% | 10% | -3.5 (-102) |
| Titans | 73% | 90% | +3.5 (-119) | |
| Total | Over | 56% | 16% | O 41.5 (-108) |
| Under | 44% | 84% | U 41.5 (-113) | |
| Moneyline | Jaguars | 64% | 44% | -185 |
| Titans | 36% | 56% | +154 |
73% of spread tickets and 90% of spread money were on the Titans, so the average Titans bet was larger than the average Jaguars bet.
The over held 56% of total tickets but only 16% of the money; 84% of total money was on the under with 44% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
The Jaguars held 64% of moneyline tickets but only 44% of the money; 56% of moneyline money was on the Titans with 36% of tickets, so the average Titans bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Jaguars vs Titans?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Titans) | +3.5 | +3.5 | 0 |
| Total | 41 | 41.5 | +0.5 |
The Jaguars were -3.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -3.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 41 24 hours before kickoff and closed 41.5, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Jaguars vs Titans line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Titans +3.5) even with 90% of the spread money on the Titans. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (41 to 41.5) even though 84% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 16% of the money and 56% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.