Falcons @ Saints
Falcons
SaintsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Saints beat the Falcons 48-17 at home. The market closed with Falcons at +150 on the moneyline and the total at 42. This was an NFL 2023 week 18 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Falcons betting trends · Saints betting trends · all NFL games
Falcons vs Saints betting splits
Where was the money on Falcons vs Saints?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Falcons | 51% | 68% | +3.5 (-112) |
| Saints | 49% | 32% | -3.5 (-107) | |
| Total | Over | 47% | 33% | O 42 (-109) |
| Under | 53% | 67% | U 42 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Falcons | 28% | 43% | +150 |
| Saints | 72% | 57% | -178 |
51% of spread tickets and 68% of spread money were on the Falcons, so the average Falcons bet was larger than the average Saints bet.
53% of total tickets and 67% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
72% of moneyline tickets and 57% of moneyline money were on the Saints, so the Saints drew more tickets than money and the average Falcons bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Falcons vs Saints?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Saints) | -3 | -3.5 | -0.5 |
| Total | 42 | 42 | 0 |
The Saints were -3 seven hours before kickoff and closed -3.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Saints.
The total was 42 seven hours before kickoff and closed 42: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Falcons vs Saints line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Saints (Saints -3 to Saints -3.5) even though 68% of the spread money sits on the Falcons; the Saints hold 32% of the money and 49% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total did not move from the line tracked seven hours before kickoff (42) even with 67% of the total money on the under. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.