Steelers @ Bills
Steelers
BillsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Steelers 31-17 at home. The market closed with Steelers at +375 on the moneyline and the total at 39.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 1 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Steelers betting trends · Bills betting trends · all NFL games
Steelers vs Bills betting splits
Where was the money on Steelers vs Bills?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Steelers | 35% | 40% | +10 (-110) |
| Bills | 65% | 60% | -10 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 43% | 44% | O 39.5 (-110) |
| Under | 57% | 56% | U 39.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Steelers | 10% | 28% | +375 |
| Bills | 90% | 72% | -500 |
65% of spread tickets and 60% of spread money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average Steelers bet was larger.
57% of total tickets and 56% of total money were on the under, so the under drew more tickets than money and the average over bet was larger.
90% of moneyline tickets and 72% of moneyline money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average Steelers bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Steelers vs Bills?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bills) | -10 | -10 | 0 |
| Total | 38.5 | 39.5 | +1 |
The Bills were -10 24 hours before kickoff and closed -10: the spread has not moved.
The total was 38.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 39.5, a 1-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Steelers vs Bills line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Bills -10) even with 60% of the spread money on the Bills. The total moved 1 point toward the over (38.5 to 39.5) even though 56% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 44% of the money and 43% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.