Dolphins @ Chiefs
Dolphins
ChiefsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Chiefs beat the Dolphins 26-7 at home. The market closed with Dolphins at +194 on the moneyline and the total at 43.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 1 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Dolphins betting trends · Chiefs betting trends · all NFL games
Dolphins vs Chiefs betting splits
Where was the money on Dolphins vs Chiefs?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dolphins | 51% | 60% | +4.5 (-105) |
| Chiefs | 49% | 40% | -4.5 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 25% | 22% | O 43.5 (-110) |
| Under | 75% | 78% | U 43.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Dolphins | 25% | 24% | +194 |
| Chiefs | 75% | 76% | -240 |
51% of spread tickets and 60% of spread money were on the Dolphins, so the average Dolphins bet was larger than the average Chiefs bet.
75% of total tickets and 78% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
75% of moneyline tickets and 76% of moneyline money were on the Chiefs, so the average Chiefs bet was larger than the average Dolphins bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Dolphins vs Chiefs?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Chiefs) | -4.5 | -4.5 | 0 |
| Total | 44 | 43.5 | -0.5 |
The Chiefs were -4.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -4.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 44 24 hours before kickoff and closed 43.5, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Dolphins vs Chiefs line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Chiefs -4.5) even with 60% of the spread money on the Dolphins. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (44 to 43.5), the side holding 78% of the total money and 75% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.