Chiefs @ Bills
Chiefs
BillsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Chiefs beat the Bills 27-24 on the road. The market closed with Chiefs at +125 on the moneyline and the total at 45.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 2 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Chiefs betting trends · Bills betting trends · all NFL games
Chiefs vs Bills betting splits
Where was the money on Chiefs vs Bills?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chiefs | 45% | 50% | +2.5 (-105) |
| Bills | 55% | 50% | -2.5 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 59% | 26% | O 45.5 (-115) |
| Under | 41% | 74% | U 45.5 (-105) | |
| Moneyline | Chiefs | 39% | 20% | +125 |
| Bills | 61% | 80% | -150 |
Spread money was split evenly at 50% a side (tickets 45% Chiefs, 55% Bills).
The over held 59% of total tickets but only 26% of the money; 74% of total money was on the under with 41% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
61% of moneyline tickets and 80% of moneyline money were on the Bills, so the average Bills bet was larger than the average Chiefs bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Chiefs vs Bills?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bills) | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 |
| Total | 45.5 | 45.5 | 0 |
The Bills were -2.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -2.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 45.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 45.5: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Chiefs vs Bills line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Bills -2.5). The total did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (45.5) even with 74% of the total money on the under. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.