49ers @ Chiefs
49ers
ChiefsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Chiefs beat the 49ers 25-22 at home. The market closed with 49ers at -127 on the moneyline and the total at 46.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 4 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: 49ers betting trends · Chiefs betting trends · all NFL games
49ers vs Chiefs betting splits
Where was the money on 49ers vs Chiefs?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | 49ers | 38% | 31% | -2.5 (-110) |
| Chiefs | 62% | 69% | +2.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 47% | 37% | O 46.5 (-115) |
| Under | 53% | 63% | U 46.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | 49ers | 42% | 54% | -127 |
| Chiefs | 58% | 46% | +107 |
62% of spread tickets and 69% of spread money were on the Chiefs, so the average Chiefs bet was larger than the average 49ers bet.
53% of total tickets and 63% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
The Chiefs held 58% of moneyline tickets but only 46% of the money; 54% of moneyline money was on the 49ers with 42% of tickets, so the average 49ers bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for 49ers vs Chiefs?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Chiefs) | +2 | +2.5 | +0.5 |
| Total | 47.5 | 46.5 | -1 |
The 49ers were -2 24 hours before kickoff and closed -2.5, a 0.5-point move toward the 49ers.
The total was 47.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 46.5, a 1-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the 49ers vs Chiefs line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the 49ers (Chiefs +2 to Chiefs +2.5) even though 69% of the spread money sits on the Chiefs; the 49ers hold 31% of the money and 38% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 1 point toward the under (47.5 to 46.5), the side holding 63% of the total money and 53% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.