Bills @ Dolphins
Bills
DolphinsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Dolphins 31-10 on the road. The market closed with Bills at +115 on the moneyline and the total at 49. This was an NFL 2024 week 2 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Bills betting trends · Dolphins betting trends · all NFL games
Bills vs Dolphins betting splits
Where was the money on Bills vs Dolphins?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bills | 73% | 47% | +2.5 (-110) |
| Dolphins | 27% | 53% | -2.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 72% | 30% | O 49 (-112) |
| Under | 28% | 70% | U 49 (-105) | |
| Moneyline | Bills | 20% | 53% | +115 |
| Dolphins | 80% | 47% | -135 |
The Bills held 73% of spread tickets but only 47% of the money; 53% of spread money was on the Dolphins with 27% of tickets, so the average Dolphins bet was larger.
The over held 72% of total tickets but only 30% of the money; 70% of total money was on the under with 28% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
The Dolphins held 80% of moneyline tickets but only 47% of the money; 53% of moneyline money was on the Bills with 20% of tickets, so the average Bills bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Bills vs Dolphins?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Dolphins) | -1.5 | -2.5 | -1 |
| Total | 51.5 | 49 | -2.5 |
The Dolphins opened -1.5 and closed -2.5, a 1-point move toward the Dolphins.
The total opened 51.5 and closed 49, a 2.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Bills vs Dolphins line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the Dolphins (Dolphins -1.5 to Dolphins -2.5), the side holding 53% of the spread money and 27% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 2.5 points toward the under (51.5 to 49), the side holding 70% of the total money and 28% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.