Chiefs @ 49ers
Chiefs
49ersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Chiefs beat the 49ers 28-18 on the road. The market closed with Chiefs at +120 on the moneyline and the total at 48. This was an NFL 2024 week 7 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Chiefs betting trends · 49ers betting trends · all NFL games
Chiefs vs 49ers betting splits
Where was the money on Chiefs vs 49ers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chiefs | 78% | 81% | +2.5 (+100) |
| 49ers | 22% | 19% | -2.5 (-120) | |
| Total | Over | 68% | 69% | O 48 (-112) |
| Under | 32% | 31% | U 48 (-108) | |
| Moneyline | Chiefs | 47% | 70% | +120 |
| 49ers | 53% | 30% | -142 |
78% of spread tickets and 81% of spread money were on the Chiefs, so the average Chiefs bet was larger than the average 49ers bet.
68% of total tickets and 69% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
The 49ers held 53% of moneyline tickets but only 30% of the money; 70% of moneyline money was on the Chiefs with 47% of tickets, so the average Chiefs bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Chiefs vs 49ers?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (49ers) | -1.5 | -2.5 | -1 |
| Total | 48 | 48 | 0 |
The 49ers opened -1.5 and closed -2.5, a 1-point move toward the 49ers.
The total opened 48 and closed 48: it has not moved.
Why the line moved
Why did the Chiefs vs 49ers line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the 49ers (49ers -1.5 to 49ers -2.5) even though 81% of the spread money sits on the Chiefs; the 49ers hold 19% of the money and 22% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total did not move from its opening number (48) even with 69% of the total money on the over. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.