Jaguars @ Dolphins
Jaguars
DolphinsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Dolphins beat the Jaguars 20-17 at home. The market closed with Jaguars at +148 on the moneyline and the total at 50. This was an NFL 2024 week 1 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Jaguars betting trends · Dolphins betting trends · all NFL games
Jaguars vs Dolphins betting splits
Where was the money on Jaguars vs Dolphins?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jaguars | 53% | 48% | +3.5 (-112) |
| Dolphins | 47% | 52% | -3.5 (-107) | |
| Total | Over | 77% | 87% | O 50 (-109) |
| Under | 23% | 13% | U 50 (-111) | |
| Moneyline | Jaguars | 6% | 11% | +148 |
| Dolphins | 94% | 89% | -177 |
The Jaguars held 53% of spread tickets but only 48% of the money; 52% of spread money was on the Dolphins with 47% of tickets, so the average Dolphins bet was larger.
77% of total tickets and 87% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
94% of moneyline tickets and 89% of moneyline money were on the Dolphins, so the Dolphins drew more tickets than money and the average Jaguars bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Jaguars vs Dolphins?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Dolphins) | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0 |
| Total | 49.5 | 50 | +0.5 |
The Dolphins opened -3.5 and closed -3.5: the spread has not moved.
The total opened 49.5 and closed 50, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
Why the line moved
Why did the Jaguars vs Dolphins line move?
The spread did not move from its opening number (Dolphins -3.5) even with 52% of the spread money on the Dolphins. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (49.5 to 50), the side holding 87% of the total money and 77% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.