Jaguars @ Bears
Jaguars
BearsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bears beat the Jaguars 35-16 at home. The market closed with Jaguars at -125 on the moneyline and the total at 44.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 6 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Jaguars betting trends · Bears betting trends · all NFL games
Jaguars vs Bears betting splits
Where was the money on Jaguars vs Bears?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jaguars | 27% | 44% | -1.5 (-111) |
| Bears | 73% | 56% | +1.5 (-109) | |
| Total | Over | 78% | 34% | O 44.5 (-109) |
| Under | 22% | 66% | U 44.5 (-111) |
73% of spread tickets and 56% of spread money were on the Bears, so the Bears drew more tickets than money and the average Jaguars bet was larger.
The over held 78% of total tickets but only 34% of the money; 66% of total money was on the under with 22% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Jaguars vs Bears?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bears) | +1 | +1.5 | +0.5 |
| Total | 47 | 44.5 | -2.5 |
The Jaguars opened -1 and closed -1.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Jaguars.
The total opened 47 and closed 44.5, a 2.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Jaguars vs Bears line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Jaguars (Bears +1 to Bears +1.5) even though 56% of the spread money sits on the Bears; the Jaguars hold 44% of the money and 27% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 2.5 points toward the under (47 to 44.5), the side holding 66% of the total money and 22% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.