Patriots @ Jaguars
Patriots
JaguarsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Jaguars beat the Patriots 32-16 at home. The market closed with Patriots at +255 on the moneyline and the total at 42.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 7 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Patriots betting trends · Jaguars betting trends · all NFL games
Patriots vs Jaguars betting splits
Where was the money on Patriots vs Jaguars?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Patriots | 62% | 38% | +7 (-115) |
| Jaguars | 38% | 62% | -7 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 83% | 72% | O 42.5 (-112) |
| Under | 17% | 28% | U 42.5 (-108) | |
| Moneyline | Patriots | 17% | 35% | +255 |
| Jaguars | 83% | 65% | -315 |
The Patriots held 62% of spread tickets but only 38% of the money; 62% of spread money was on the Jaguars with 38% of tickets, so the average Jaguars bet was larger.
83% of total tickets and 72% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
83% of moneyline tickets and 65% of moneyline money were on the Jaguars, so the Jaguars drew more tickets than money and the average Patriots bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Patriots vs Jaguars?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Jaguars) | -6.5 | -7 | -0.5 |
| Total | 42 | 42.5 | +0.5 |
The Jaguars opened -6.5 and closed -7, a 0.5-point move toward the Jaguars.
The total opened 42 and closed 42.5, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
Why the line moved
Why did the Patriots vs Jaguars line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Jaguars (Jaguars -6.5 to Jaguars -7), the side holding 62% of the spread money and 38% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (42 to 42.5), the side holding 72% of the total money and 83% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.