Commanders @ Buccaneers
Commanders
BuccaneersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Buccaneers beat the Commanders 37-20 at home. The market closed with Commanders at +170 on the moneyline and the total at 42.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 1 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Commanders betting trends · Buccaneers betting trends · all NFL games
Commanders vs Buccaneers betting splits
Where was the money on Commanders vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Commanders | 62% | 64% | +4 (-108) |
| Buccaneers | 38% | 36% | -4 (-112) | |
| Total | Over | 68% | 82% | O 42.5 (-110) |
| Under | 32% | 18% | U 42.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Commanders | 12% | 10% | +170 |
| Buccaneers | 88% | 90% | -205 |
62% of spread tickets and 64% of spread money were on the Commanders, so the average Commanders bet was larger than the average Buccaneers bet.
68% of total tickets and 82% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
88% of moneyline tickets and 90% of moneyline money were on the Buccaneers, so the average Buccaneers bet was larger than the average Commanders bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Commanders vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Buccaneers) | -4.5 | -4 | +0.5 |
| Total | 40.5 | 42.5 | +2 |
The Buccaneers opened -4.5 and closed -4, a 0.5-point move toward the Commanders.
The total opened 40.5 and closed 42.5, a 2-point move toward the over.
Why the line moved
Why did the Commanders vs Buccaneers line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Commanders (Buccaneers -4.5 to Buccaneers -4), the side holding 64% of the spread money and 62% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 2 points toward the over (40.5 to 42.5), the side holding 82% of the total money and 68% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.