Cardinals @ Bills
Cardinals
BillsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Cardinals 34-28 at home. The market closed with Cardinals at +247 on the moneyline and the total at 46. This was an NFL 2024 week 1 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Cardinals betting trends · Bills betting trends · all NFL games
Cardinals vs Bills betting splits
Where was the money on Cardinals vs Bills?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cardinals | 65% | 59% | +6.5 (-105) |
| Bills | 35% | 41% | -6.5 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 74% | 40% | O 46 (-110) |
| Under | 26% | 60% | U 46 (-111) | |
| Moneyline | Cardinals | 9% | 6% | +247 |
| Bills | 91% | 94% | -307 |
65% of spread tickets and 59% of spread money were on the Cardinals, so the Cardinals drew more tickets than money and the average Bills bet was larger.
The over held 74% of total tickets but only 40% of the money; 60% of total money was on the under with 26% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
91% of moneyline tickets and 94% of moneyline money were on the Bills, so the average Bills bet was larger than the average Cardinals bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Cardinals vs Bills?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bills) | -7 | -6.5 | +0.5 |
| Total | 47.5 | 46 | -1.5 |
The Bills opened -7 and closed -6.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Cardinals.
The total opened 47.5 and closed 46, a 1.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Cardinals vs Bills line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Cardinals (Bills -7 to Bills -6.5), the side holding 59% of the spread money and 65% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 1.5 points toward the under (47.5 to 46), the side holding 60% of the total money and 26% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.