Patriots @ Bengals
Patriots
BengalsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Patriots beat the Bengals 16-10 on the road. The market closed with Patriots at +297 on the moneyline and the total at 40.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 1 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Patriots betting trends · Bengals betting trends · all NFL games
Patriots vs Bengals betting splits
Where was the money on Patriots vs Bengals?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Patriots | 31% | 33% | +8 (-110) |
| Bengals | 69% | 67% | -8 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 89% | 66% | O 40.5 (-111) |
| Under | 11% | 34% | U 40.5 (-112) | |
| Moneyline | Patriots | 6% | 10% | +297 |
| Bengals | 94% | 90% | -377 |
69% of spread tickets and 67% of spread money were on the Bengals, so the Bengals drew more tickets than money and the average Patriots bet was larger.
89% of total tickets and 66% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
94% of moneyline tickets and 90% of moneyline money were on the Bengals, so the Bengals drew more tickets than money and the average Patriots bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Patriots vs Bengals?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bengals) | -7.5 | -8 | -0.5 |
| Total | 42.5 | 40.5 | -2 |
The Bengals opened -7.5 and closed -8, a 0.5-point move toward the Bengals.
The total opened 42.5 and closed 40.5, a 2-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Patriots vs Bengals line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Bengals (Bengals -7.5 to Bengals -8), the side holding 67% of the spread money and 69% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 2 points toward the under (42.5 to 40.5) even though 66% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 34% of the money and 11% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.