Texans @ Colts
Texans
ColtsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Texans beat the Colts 29-27 on the road. The market closed with Texans at -154 on the moneyline and the total at 48. This was an NFL 2024 week 1 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Texans betting trends · Colts betting trends · all NFL games
Texans vs Colts betting splits
Where was the money on Texans vs Colts?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texans | 43% | 74% | -3 (-108) |
| Colts | 57% | 26% | +3 (-112) | |
| Total | Over | 78% | 92% | O 48 (-114) |
| Under | 22% | 8% | U 48 (-111) | |
| Moneyline | Texans | 83% | 93% | -154 |
| Colts | 17% | 7% | +129 |
The Colts held 57% of spread tickets but only 26% of the money; 74% of spread money was on the Texans with 43% of tickets, so the average Texans bet was larger.
78% of total tickets and 92% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
83% of moneyline tickets and 93% of moneyline money were on the Texans, so the average Texans bet was larger than the average Colts bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Texans vs Colts?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Colts) | +1.5 | +3 | +1.5 |
| Total | 47.5 | 48 | +0.5 |
The Texans opened -1.5 and closed -3, a 1.5-point move toward the Texans.
The total opened 47.5 and closed 48, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
Why the line moved
Why did the Texans vs Colts line move?
The spread moved 1.5 points toward the Texans (Colts +1.5 to Colts +3), the side holding 74% of the spread money and 43% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (47.5 to 48), the side holding 92% of the total money and 78% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.