Broncos @ Saints
Broncos
SaintsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Broncos beat the Saints 33-10 on the road. The market closed with Broncos at -148 on the moneyline and the total at 37. This was an NFL 2024 week 7 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Broncos betting trends · Saints betting trends · all NFL games
Broncos vs Saints betting splits
Where was the money on Broncos vs Saints?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Broncos | 55% | 72% | -2.5 (-114) |
| Saints | 45% | 28% | +2.5 (-106) | |
| Total | Over | 87% | 71% | O 37 (-112) |
| Under | 13% | 29% | U 37 (-108) | |
| Moneyline | Broncos | 56% | 59% | -148 |
| Saints | 44% | 41% | +124 |
55% of spread tickets and 72% of spread money were on the Broncos, so the average Broncos bet was larger than the average Saints bet.
87% of total tickets and 71% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
56% of moneyline tickets and 59% of moneyline money were on the Broncos, so the average Broncos bet was larger than the average Saints bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Broncos vs Saints?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Saints) | -3.5 | +2.5 | +6 |
| Total | 42.5 | 37 | -5.5 |
The Saints opened -3.5 and closed +2.5, a 6-point move toward the Broncos.
The total opened 42.5 and closed 37, a 5.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Broncos vs Saints line move?
The spread moved 6 points toward the Broncos (Saints -3.5 to Saints +2.5), the side holding 72% of the spread money and 55% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 5.5 points toward the under (42.5 to 37) even though 71% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 29% of the money and 13% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.