Dolphins @ Colts
Dolphins
ColtsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Colts beat the Dolphins 16-10 at home. The market closed with Dolphins at +130 on the moneyline and the total at 44. This was an NFL 2024 week 7 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Dolphins betting trends · Colts betting trends · all NFL games
Dolphins vs Colts betting splits
Where was the money on Dolphins vs Colts?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dolphins | 45% | 39% | +3 (-120) |
| Colts | 55% | 61% | -3 (-100) | |
| Total | Over | 72% | 60% | O 44 (-110) |
| Under | 28% | 40% | U 44 (-108) | |
| Moneyline | Dolphins | 21% | 15% | +130 |
| Colts | 79% | 85% | -155 |
55% of spread tickets and 61% of spread money were on the Colts, so the average Colts bet was larger than the average Dolphins bet.
72% of total tickets and 60% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
79% of moneyline tickets and 85% of moneyline money were on the Colts, so the average Colts bet was larger than the average Dolphins bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Dolphins vs Colts?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Colts) | +1 | -3 | -4 |
| Total | 49 | 44 | -5 |
The Dolphins opened -1 and closed +3, a 4-point move toward the Colts.
The total opened 49 and closed 44, a 5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Dolphins vs Colts line move?
The spread moved 4 points toward the Colts (Colts +1 to Colts -3), the side holding 61% of the spread money and 55% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 5 points toward the under (49 to 44) even though 60% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 40% of the money and 28% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.