Dolphins @ Packers
Dolphins
PackersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Packers beat the Dolphins 30-17 at home. The market closed with Dolphins at +150 on the moneyline and the total at 47.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 13 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Dolphins betting trends · Packers betting trends · all NFL games
Dolphins vs Packers betting splits
Where was the money on Dolphins vs Packers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dolphins | 43% | 61% | +3.5 (-115) |
| Packers | 57% | 39% | -3.5 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 70% | 67% | O 47.5 (-110) |
| Under | 30% | 33% | U 47.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Dolphins | 21% | 66% | +150 |
| Packers | 79% | 34% | -180 |
The Packers held 57% of spread tickets but only 39% of the money; 61% of spread money was on the Dolphins with 43% of tickets, so the average Dolphins bet was larger.
70% of total tickets and 67% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
The Packers held 79% of moneyline tickets but only 34% of the money; 66% of moneyline money was on the Dolphins with 21% of tickets, so the average Dolphins bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Dolphins vs Packers?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Packers) | -3 | -3.5 | -0.5 |
| Total | 48.5 | 47.5 | -1 |
The Packers opened -3 and closed -3.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Packers.
The total opened 48.5 and closed 47.5, a 1-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Dolphins vs Packers line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Packers (Packers -3 to Packers -3.5) even though 61% of the spread money sits on the Dolphins; the Packers hold 39% of the money and 57% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 1 point toward the under (48.5 to 47.5) even though 67% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 33% of the money and 30% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.