Texans @ Jaguars
Texans
JaguarsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Texans beat the Jaguars 23-20 on the road. The market closed with Texans at -180 on the moneyline and the total at 44.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 13 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Texans betting trends · Jaguars betting trends · all NFL games
Texans vs Jaguars betting splits
Where was the money on Texans vs Jaguars?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texans | 81% | 76% | -3.5 (-110) |
| Jaguars | 19% | 24% | +3.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 78% | 86% | O 44.5 (-112) |
| Under | 22% | 14% | U 44.5 (-108) | |
| Moneyline | Texans | 94% | 97% | -180 |
| Jaguars | 6% | 3% | +150 |
81% of spread tickets and 76% of spread money were on the Texans, so the Texans drew more tickets than money and the average Jaguars bet was larger.
78% of total tickets and 86% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
94% of moneyline tickets and 97% of moneyline money were on the Texans, so the average Texans bet was larger than the average Jaguars bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Texans vs Jaguars?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Jaguars) | -1 | +3.5 | +4.5 |
| Total | 47 | 44.5 | -2.5 |
The Jaguars opened -1 and closed +3.5, a 4.5-point move toward the Texans.
The total opened 47 and closed 44.5, a 2.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Texans vs Jaguars line move?
The spread moved 4.5 points toward the Texans (Jaguars -1 to Jaguars +3.5), the side holding 76% of the spread money and 81% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 2.5 points toward the under (47 to 44.5) even though 86% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 14% of the money and 22% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.