49ers @ Bills
49ers
BillsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the 49ers 35-10 at home. The market closed with 49ers at +267 on the moneyline and the total at 45.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 13 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: 49ers betting trends · Bills betting trends · all NFL games
49ers vs Bills betting splits
Where was the money on 49ers vs Bills?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | 49ers | 39% | 40% | +6.5 (-110) |
| Bills | 61% | 60% | -6.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 81% | 53% | O 45.5 (-110) |
| Under | 19% | 47% | U 45.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | 49ers | 10% | 1% | +267 |
| Bills | 90% | 99% | -332 |
61% of spread tickets and 60% of spread money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average 49ers bet was larger.
81% of total tickets and 53% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
90% of moneyline tickets and 99% of moneyline money were on the Bills, so the average Bills bet was larger than the average 49ers bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for 49ers vs Bills?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bills) | +2 | -6.5 | -8.5 |
| Total | 47 | 45.5 | -1.5 |
The 49ers opened -2 and closed +6.5, a 8.5-point move toward the Bills.
The total opened 47 and closed 45.5, a 1.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the 49ers vs Bills line move?
The spread moved 8.5 points toward the Bills (Bills +2 to Bills -6.5), the side holding 60% of the spread money and 61% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 1.5 points toward the under (47 to 45.5) even though 53% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 47% of the money and 19% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.