Bears @ Texans
Bears
TexansArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Texans beat the Bears 19-13 at home. The market closed with Bears at +235 on the moneyline and the total at 45.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 2 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Bears betting trends · Texans betting trends · all NFL games
Bears vs Texans betting splits
Where was the money on Bears vs Texans?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bears | 40% | 23% | +6.5 (-105) |
| Texans | 60% | 77% | -6.5 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 69% | 66% | O 45.5 (-114) |
| Under | 31% | 34% | U 45.5 (-106) | |
| Moneyline | Bears | 12% | 17% | +235 |
| Texans | 88% | 83% | -289 |
60% of spread tickets and 77% of spread money were on the Texans, so the average Texans bet was larger than the average Bears bet.
69% of total tickets and 66% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
88% of moneyline tickets and 83% of moneyline money were on the Texans, so the Texans drew more tickets than money and the average Bears bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Bears vs Texans?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Texans) | -3 | -6.5 | -3.5 |
| Total | 47 | 45.5 | -1.5 |
The Texans opened -3 and closed -6.5, a 3.5-point move toward the Texans.
The total opened 47 and closed 45.5, a 1.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Bears vs Texans line move?
The spread moved 3.5 points toward the Texans (Texans -3 to Texans -6.5), the side holding 77% of the spread money and 60% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 1.5 points toward the under (47 to 45.5) even though 66% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 34% of the money and 31% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.