Broncos @ Buccaneers
Broncos
BuccaneersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Broncos beat the Buccaneers 26-7 on the road. The market closed with Broncos at +207 on the moneyline and the total at 40.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 3 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Broncos betting trends · Buccaneers betting trends · all NFL games
Broncos vs Buccaneers betting splits
Where was the money on Broncos vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Broncos | 23% | 18% | +6 (-112) |
| Buccaneers | 77% | 82% | -6 (-108) | |
| Total | Over | 69% | 66% | O 40.5 (-112) |
| Under | 31% | 34% | U 40.5 (-108) | |
| Moneyline | Broncos | 4% | 7% | +207 |
| Buccaneers | 96% | 93% | -252 |
77% of spread tickets and 82% of spread money were on the Buccaneers, so the average Buccaneers bet was larger than the average Broncos bet.
69% of total tickets and 66% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
96% of moneyline tickets and 93% of moneyline money were on the Buccaneers, so the Buccaneers drew more tickets than money and the average Broncos bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Broncos vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Buccaneers) | -3.5 | -6 | -2.5 |
| Total | 43 | 40.5 | -2.5 |
The Buccaneers opened -3.5 and closed -6, a 2.5-point move toward the Buccaneers.
The total opened 43 and closed 40.5, a 2.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Broncos vs Buccaneers line move?
The spread moved 2.5 points toward the Buccaneers (Buccaneers -3.5 to Buccaneers -6), the side holding 82% of the spread money and 77% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 2.5 points toward the under (43 to 40.5) even though 66% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 34% of the money and 31% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.