Bears @ Colts
Bears
ColtsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Colts beat the Bears 21-16 at home. The market closed with Bears at +112 on the moneyline and the total at 43.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 3 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Bears betting trends · Colts betting trends · all NFL games
Bears vs Colts betting splits
Where was the money on Bears vs Colts?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bears | 55% | 61% | +2.5 (-111) |
| Colts | 45% | 39% | -2.5 (-109) | |
| Total | Over | 54% | 44% | O 43.5 (-110) |
| Under | 46% | 56% | U 43.5 (-107) | |
| Moneyline | Bears | 37% | 66% | +112 |
| Colts | 63% | 34% | -132 |
55% of spread tickets and 61% of spread money were on the Bears, so the average Bears bet was larger than the average Colts bet.
The over held 54% of total tickets but only 44% of the money; 56% of total money was on the under with 46% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
The Colts held 63% of moneyline tickets but only 34% of the money; 66% of moneyline money was on the Bears with 37% of tickets, so the average Bears bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Bears vs Colts?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Colts) | -2 | -2.5 | -0.5 |
| Total | 47 | 43.5 | -3.5 |
The Colts opened -2 and closed -2.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Colts.
The total opened 47 and closed 43.5, a 3.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Bears vs Colts line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Colts (Colts -2 to Colts -2.5) even though 61% of the spread money sits on the Bears; the Colts hold 39% of the money and 45% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 3.5 points toward the under (47 to 43.5), the side holding 56% of the total money and 46% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.