Jaguars @ Bills
Jaguars
BillsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Jaguars 47-10 at home. The market closed with Jaguars at +185 on the moneyline and the total at 46.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 3 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Jaguars betting trends · Bills betting trends · all NFL games
Jaguars vs Bills betting splits
Where was the money on Jaguars vs Bills?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jaguars | 27% | 40% | +4.5 (-113) |
| Bills | 73% | 60% | -4.5 (-106) | |
| Total | Over | 57% | 73% | O 46.5 (-110) |
| Under | 43% | 27% | U 46.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Jaguars | 3% | 3% | +185 |
| Bills | 97% | 97% | -225 |
73% of spread tickets and 60% of spread money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average Jaguars bet was larger.
57% of total tickets and 73% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
97% of moneyline tickets and 97% of moneyline money were on the Bills, with money and tickets in step.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Jaguars vs Bills?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bills) | -4.5 | -4.5 | 0 |
| Total | 50 | 46.5 | -3.5 |
The Bills opened -4.5 and closed -4.5: the spread has not moved.
The total opened 50 and closed 46.5, a 3.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Jaguars vs Bills line move?
The spread did not move from its opening number (Bills -4.5) even with 60% of the spread money on the Bills. The total moved 3.5 points toward the under (50 to 46.5) even though 73% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 27% of the money and 43% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.